HISTORICAL ASSESSMENT
RUSHTON SCORE
94
HISTORICAL CONFIDENCE
VERY HIGH
Historical evidence suggests today's market may be significantly underpricing YES.
Scores range from 0–100. Higher Rushton Scores indicate stronger historical evidence that today's market probability is accurately priced.
Why RUSHTON reached this score
Historical Similarity
Similarity Score: 89/100
Very High
Sample Strength
3,841 comparable historical markets
Excellent
|
YES |
NO |
| Today's Market |
69% |
31% |
| Historical Probability |
72% |
28% |
| Based on |
3841 comparable historical markets
|
Analysis
RUSHTON identified 3,841 comparable historical markets. Across those markets, YES resolved 72% of the time. Today's market is priced 3 percentage points very close to that historical outcome.
Conclusion
HISTORY FAVOURS THE YES SIDE
Historical evidence favours the YES outcome more strongly than today's market price suggests.