Rushton | Independent Prediction Market Ratings

HOW WE RATE RUSHTON PRO

CLOSER TO THE EDGE.

Rushton finds prediction markets where the price might not be the probability.

60,811

Historical Markets
Catalogued

8.88M

Historical
Observations

1181

Live Markets
Reviewed

Ratings
Published

Crypto

Bitcoin

✓

RUSHTON RATINGS · KALSHI · POLYMARKET

15,460

BITCOIN MARKETS CATALOGUED

329 MARKETS ASSESSED THIS EDITION

Rushton rates supported markets independently. The highest-confidence Ratings earn homepage attention.

HIGHLY RATED

Kalshi

Bitcoin price on Oct 3, 2026? $84,500 or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 1000 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 56.0%

Historical Probability 40.0%

Difference -17pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Polymarket

Bitcoin price on Oct 3, 2026? $86,000 or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 100 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 1.0%

Historical Probability 17.0%

Difference +16pp

Historical probability is above market price

View Rating →

Kalshi

Bitcoin price on Oct 3, 2026? $84,750 or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 1000 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 36.0%

Historical Probability 45.0%

Difference +9pp

Historical probability is above market price

View Rating →

Crypto

Ethereum

✓

RUSHTON RATINGS · KALSHI · POLYMARKET

15,152

ETHEREUM MARKETS CATALOGUED

390 MARKETS ASSESSED THIS EDITION

Rushton rates supported markets independently. The highest-confidence Ratings earn homepage attention.

HIGHLY RATED

Polymarket

Ethereum price on Oct 3, 2026? $2,700 or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 100 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 12.0%

Historical Probability 34.0%

Difference +22pp

Historical probability is above market price

View Rating →

Commodities

Gold

✓

RUSHTON RATINGS · KALSHI · POLYMARKET

1,295

GOLD MARKETS CATALOGUED

40 MARKETS ASSESSED THIS EDITION

Rushton rates supported markets independently. The highest-confidence Ratings earn homepage attention.

HIGHLY RATED

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,093 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 27 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 84.0%

Historical Probability 63.0%

Difference -21pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,103 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 28 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 80.0%

Historical Probability 64.0%

Difference -16pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,083 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 27 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 88.0%

Historical Probability 74.0%

Difference -14pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,113 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 29 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 72.0%

Historical Probability 62.0%

Difference -10pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,073 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 28 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 91.0%

Historical Probability 82.0%

Difference -9pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,063 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 29 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 93.0%

Historical Probability 86.0%

Difference -7pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,043 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 29 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 96.0%

Historical Probability 90.0%

Difference -6pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,133 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 29 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 61.0%

Historical Probability 55.0%

Difference -6pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,053 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 29 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 95.0%

Historical Probability 90.0%

Difference -5pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Gold price on Oct 5, 2026? $4,023 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 28 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 98.0%

Historical Probability 93.0%

Difference -5pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Commodities

Oil

✓

RUSHTON RATINGS · KALSHI · POLYMARKET

1,344

OIL MARKETS CATALOGUED

135 MARKETS ASSESSED THIS EDITION

Rushton rates supported markets independently. The highest-confidence Ratings earn homepage attention.

HIGHLY RATED

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $89.49 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 46 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 71.0%

Historical Probability 59.0%

Difference -12pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $91.49 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 40 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 43.0%

Historical Probability 32.0%

Difference -10pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $90.49 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 44 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 58.0%

Historical Probability 48.0%

Difference -10pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $92.49 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 45 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 30.0%

Historical Probability 20.0%

Difference -10pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $89.99 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 45 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 65.0%

Historical Probability 56.0%

Difference -9pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $90.99 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 45 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 51.0%

Historical Probability 42.0%

Difference -9pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $94.49 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 45 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 12.0%

Historical Probability 4.0%

Difference -8pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $93.99 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 47 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 16.0%

Historical Probability 9.0%

Difference -7pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $91.99 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 46 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 37.0%

Historical Probability 30.0%

Difference -7pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $92.99 USD/Bbl or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 46 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 25.0%

Historical Probability 20.0%

Difference -5pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Commodities

Silver

✓

RUSHTON RATINGS · KALSHI · POLYMARKET

1,758

SILVER MARKETS CATALOGUED

40 MARKETS ASSESSED THIS EDITION

Rushton rates supported markets independently. The highest-confidence Ratings earn homepage attention.

HIGHLY RATED

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $59.25 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 35 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 87.0%

Historical Probability 71.0%

Difference -16pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $61.25 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 39 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 25.0%

Historical Probability 13.0%

Difference -12pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $59.50 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 38 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 82.0%

Historical Probability 71.0%

Difference -11pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $61.00 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 39 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 33.0%

Historical Probability 23.0%

Difference -10pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $59.00 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 38 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 91.0%

Historical Probability 84.0%

Difference -7pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $61.50 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 40 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 18.0%

Historical Probability 12.0%

Difference -5pp

Market price is above historical probability

View Rating →

Kalshi

Silver price on Oct 5, 2026? $60.50 USD/t.oz or above

Rushton Rating

Historical Evidence (max 1,000) 39 MARKETS

Today's Market (current edition) 51.0%

Historical Probability 56.0%

Difference +5pp

Historical probability is above market price

View Rating →