Oil Prediction Market Ratings

COMMODITIES · OIL

Oil Prediction Markets

Rushton compares today's oil prediction-market probabilities with outcomes from historically similar resolved markets — adding quantitative historical context to the probability you see today.

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Today's Oil Intelligence

Only markets that satisfy Rushton's qualification and publication standards appear here.

TOP ASSESSMENT

Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $90.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 43 markets

Today's Market 59.0%

Historical Probability 44.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $90.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 40 markets

Today's Market 53.0%

Historical Probability 40.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $89.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 43 markets

Today's Market 69.0%

Historical Probability 58.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $91.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 41 markets

Today's Market 40.0%

Historical Probability 29.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $90.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 36 markets

Today's Market 62.0%

Historical Probability 53.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $90.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 36 markets

Today's Market 53.0%

Historical Probability 44.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $92.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 41 markets

Today's Market 23.0%

Historical Probability 15.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $91.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 45 markets

Today's Market 46.0%

Historical Probability 38.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $94.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 45 markets

Today's Market 12.0%

Historical Probability 4.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $93.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 43 markets

Today's Market 23.0%

Historical Probability 16.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $95.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 43 markets

Today's Market 9.0%

Historical Probability 2.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $91.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 39 markets

Today's Market 45.0%

Historical Probability 38.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $85.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 44 markets

Today's Market 94.0%

Historical Probability 100.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $88.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 42 markets

Today's Market 82.0%

Historical Probability 76.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $89.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 46 markets

Today's Market 71.0%

Historical Probability 65.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $92.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 43 markets

Today's Market 29.0%

Historical Probability 23.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $94.99 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 43 markets

Today's Market 8.0%

Historical Probability 2.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 5, 2026? $94.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 45 markets

Today's Market 10.0%

Historical Probability 4.0%

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Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $92.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 42 markets

Today's Market 34.0%

Historical Probability 29.0%

VIEW ASSESSMENT →

Rushton Score

Kalshi

WTI crude oil price on Oct 6, 2026? $94.49 USD/Bbl or above

Historical Evidence 47 markets

Today's Market 16.0%

Historical Probability 11.0%

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What is an oil prediction market?

An oil prediction market allows participants to trade contracts around a defined future Oil outcome, such as whether Oil will finish above a particular price. The market price can be interpreted as the probability currently implied by traders.

What does Rushton add?

Today's market probability tells you what the market believes now. Rushton adds another perspective by finding historically comparable resolved markets and examining what actually happened in those cases.

Today's probability vs historical probability

These numbers answer different questions. Today's probability reflects the current market price. Historical probability describes the outcomes observed across Rushton's comparable historical sample. A difference between them is context — not a guarantee about what happens next.

Why doesn't Rushton show every market?

Rushton deliberately filters the market universe. Markets must satisfy liquidity, pricing, timing and evidence standards before they are published. Sometimes the correct intelligence report is that no market currently qualifies.

How Rushton assesses prediction markets

Rushton is an intelligence layer for prediction markets. It uses historical evidence to place today's probability in context rather than telling users what to buy. Comparable markets, evidence strength and market maturity all matter before an assessment is published.

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